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Este video es el segundo de la Segunda Temporada de Fun & Finance. En esta ocasión y con la ayuda de Leonardo Vicchi hablamos brevemente sobre el VIX. Qué es el VIX, como se construye, para que sirve y como puedo utilizarlo para operar.

Acompañan a ese video unos substitutos en inglés, los cuales no fueron realizados por un traductor profesional.

An Intertemporal CAPM with Stochastic Volatility

Abstract: 
This paper extends the approximate closed-form intertemporal capital asset pricing model of Campbell (1993) to allow for stochastic volatility. The return on the aggregate stock market is modeled as one element of a vector autoregressive (VAR) system, and the volatility of all shocks to the VAR is another element of the system. The paper presents evidence that growth stocks underperform value stocks because they hedge two types of deterioration in investment opportunities: declining expected stock returns, and increasing volatility.

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Econometric Modeling of Exchange Rate Volatility and Jumps

Abstract

This chapter reviews the rapid advances in foreign exchange volatility modeling made in the last three decades. Academic researchers have sought to ?t the three major characteristics of foreign exchange volatility: intraday periodicity, autocorrelation and discontinuities in prices. Early research modeled the autocorrelation in daily and weekly squared foreign exchange returns with ARCH/GARCH models. Increased computing power and availability of high-frequency data allowed later researchers to improve volatility and jumps estimates. Researchers also found it useful to incorporate information about periodic volatility patterns and macroeconomic announcements in their calculations. This article details these volatility and jump estimation methods, compares those methods empirically and provides some suggestions for further research.

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Local Volatility Pricing Models for Long-dated FX Derivatives

We study the local volatility function in the Foreign Exchange market where both domestic and foreign interest rates are stochastic. This model is suitable to price long-dated FX derivatives. We derive the local volatility function and obtain several results that can be used for the calibration of this local volatility on the FX option’s market. Then, we study an extension to obtain a more general volatility model and propose a calibration method for the local volatility associated to this model.

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A Comprehensive Look at Financial Volatility Prediction by Economic Variables

Abstract

We investigate if asset return volatility is predictable by macroeconomic and financial variables and shed light on the economic drivers of financial volatility. Our approach is distinct due to its comprehensiveness: First, we employ a data-rich forecast methodology to handle a large set of potential predictors in a Bayesian Model Averaging approach, and, second, we take a look at multiple asset classes (equities, foreign exchange, bonds, and commodities) over long time spans. We find that proxies for credit risk and funding (il) liquidity consistently show up as common predictors of volatility across asset classes. Variables capturing time-varying risk premia also perform well as predictors of volatility. While forecasts by macro-finance augmented models also achieve forecasting gains out-of-sample relative to autoregressive benchmarks, the performance varies across asset classes and over time.

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