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(Fuente: Greek rescue wobbles, Central bank outlook, Standard Chartered Research, 17 February 2012)

(Fuente: GLOBAL ECONOMICS WEEKLY As growth stabilizes, policy easing should slow. Barclays Capital, Barclays Capital, 10 February 2012)

(Fuente: BNP Paribas, Global Market Monitor: Free Riders versus Free-Fallers. 9 February 2012)

Low Interest Rates and Housing Bubbles: Still No Smoking Gun

Abstract

This paper revisits the relationship between interest rates and house prices. Surveying a number of recent studies and bringing to bear some new evidence on the question, this paper argues that in the data, the impact of interest rates on house prices appears to be quite modest. Speci?cally, the estimated effects are uniformly smaller than those implied by the conventional user cost theory of house prices, and they are too small to explain the previous decade’s real estate boom in the U.S. and elsewhere. However in some countries, there does appear to have been a link between the rapid expansion of the monetary base and growth in house prices and housing credit.

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La modelizaciónde la curva cero cupón local de Argentina presenta desafíos interesantes dado que es un mercado relativamente ilíquido y con bonos de estructura compleja. Este paper adapta la metodología de Nelson y Siegel a las particularidades del mercado argentino de forma de optimizar su performance.

Estimación de la Estructura Temporal de Tasas de Interés en el Caso Argentino

Resumen: Se evalúan dos métodos de estimación de la estructura temporal de tasas de interés para el caso de una curva invertida, con dos jorobas y poca granularidad como es la curva de bonos argentinos indexados a la inflación. Se contrasta un método paramétrico basado en fundamentos económicos, propuesto por Nelson y Siegel en 1987 y extendido por Svensson en 1994, con otro método clásico de interpolación basado en splines naturales.

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