Tag Archive | "pronosticos"

Tabla du Jour: FX Pronósticos febrero

Tabla du Jour: FX Pronósticos febrero

(Fuente: Turning of the tide, FX monthly, Barclays Capital, 23 February 2012)

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Gráfico du Jour: Algunos pronósticos 2012…

Gráfico du Jour: Algunos pronósticos 2012…

(Fuente: JP Morgan, via FT Alphaville)

 

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Gráfico du Jour: Pronostico del Petroleo

Gráfico du Jour: Pronostico del Petroleo

(Fuente: Bloomberg, via Infectious Greed)

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Gráfico du Jour: Pronósticos

Gráfico du Jour: Pronósticos

(Fuente: NYT)

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Paper: Recomendaciones y sesgos en las estimaciones

‘Self-Fulfilling’ Stock Recommendations

Abstract:
This paper tests the hypothesis that analysts report biased earnings estimates in order to enhance their stock recommendation performance. In particular, we argue that analysts with optimistic (pessimistic) stock recommendations tend to issue negatively (positively) biased earnings forecasts so that the underlying firms are more likely to beat (miss) the consensus forecasts and thus have higher (lower) stock returns after these recommendations are issued. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that average stock recommendations prior to earnings announcements significantly and positively predict subsequent earnings surprises. In addition, the predictability is substantially stronger when the net benefits associated with such strategic behavior are larger, for example, among firms with lower analyst coverage.

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Paper: Cash y Retornos del Portfolio

Cash Position Forecasts and Stock Market Portfolio Returns

Abstract:
Several articles in highly regarded news outlets over the last decade have argued that firms holding relatively more cash are favored by investors. The contention is those firms holding cash will have better access to good investment prospects. This view contradicts the Jensen (1986) free cash flow proposition. This study examines the investment returns of portfolios created according to trading strategies based on expected “good” news versus “bad” news predictions of cash holdings. Results indicate that firms holding more cash than expected have superior investment returns.

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