Tag Archive | "hedge"

Gráfico du Jour: comprando protección

Gráfico du Jour: comprando protección


(Fuente: Rising demand for hedges, Flows & Liquidity, February 24 2012.

 

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Finanzas 101: Repo, Haircuts y márgenes iniciales

Finanzas 101: Repo, Haircuts y márgenes iniciales

Haircuts and initial margins in the repo market

Executive summary

1.1 Collateral is intended to hedge default risk. Haircuts/initial margins are usually seen as being intended to hedge the risk on that collateral. From this point of view,  they  are an adjustment to the quoted market value of a collateral security to take account of the unexpected loss that the repo buyer (seller) in a repo may face due to the difficulty of selling (buying) a collateral security in response to a default by the repo seller (buyer).

Link al Paper

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Paper: Un poco de Research de Lehman

Paper: Un poco de Research de Lehman

A dynamic default correlation model (2008)

We develop a dynamic model of default that matches single-name CDS spreads by construction and can be calibrated to standard CDO tranche spreads. We assume that single-name default intensities have a one-factor structure with an unobservable systematic factor. Our model formalizes an intuitive idea: while the current level of spreads is determined by the distribution of default times, spread volatility is determined by the process of resolution of uncertainty about default times. We model resolution of uncertainty as learning about the unobservable systematic factor. Our model is computationally tractable and has the appealing property that the learning process can be specified to match empirically observed spread volatility with no affect on the model-implied spread levels

Link al Paper

Commodity Futures and Inflation (2008)

In this paper, we present some empirical evidence on the connection between commodities and inflation. Using historical prices on twenty commodity futures covering a period from 1988 to early 2008, we estimate correlations between futures returns and several inflation measures. We find that most commodity futures exhibit very weak correlation with several core inflation measures. Energy commodities have somewhat higher correlation with the total Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is due to the effect of volatile energy prices on the CPI level. We conclude that the average correlation between various commodities and overall price inflation is very low.

Link al Paper

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Estos papers fueron escritos por Leonid Kogan de MIT


 
					

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Subasta del evento de crédito

Subasta del evento de crédito

FT Alphaville tiene una muy buena serie de posts sobre un método (una subasta) por el cual se obtiene el monto definitivo que paga un CDS (si un evento de default ocurre).

To the extent that CDS are used to hedge, rather than speculate, the outcomes of these auctions will dictate how effective the hedge has been.

In this series, FT Alphaville looks at why the auction process was put in place, how it works, and why it may be biased — while discussing some rather curious cases along the way.

Aquí están los links los tres posts.

  1. Why do they exist?
  2. A necessary condition for growth
  3. Mechanics

 

 

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Finanzas 101: Proxy Hedging

Finanzas 101: Proxy Hedging

Tal vez es una serie de post más para finanzas 301, pero los ultimos 3 post de Quantivity hacen un buen capitulo de Hedging.

Proxy / Cross Hedging

“The root challenge of two current equity risk and alpha projects boil down to hedging using non-underlying instruments, known as proxy hedging or cross hedging.”

Empirical Quantiles and Proxy Selection

“(…)how to choose an appropriate hedge instrument, especially amongst several alternatives.”

Empirical Copulas and Hedge Basis Risk

“Of particular interest is understanding the dynamics of basis risk under extreme scenarios (both up and down), which are driven by time-varying stochastic joint covariation.”

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Paper: Hedging dinamico, análisis empírico

An Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Multiscale Hedging using Wavelet Decomposition

Abstract

This paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of a dynamic moving window OLS hedging model, formed using wavelet decomposed time-series. The wavelet transform is applied to calculate the appropriate dynamic minimum-variance hedge ratio for various hedging horizons for a number of assets. The effectiveness of the dynamic multiscale hedging strategy is then tested, both in- and out-of-sample, using standard variance reduction and expanded to include a downside risk metric, the time horizon dependent Value-at-Risk. Measured using variance reduction, the effectiveness converges to one at longer scales, while a measure of VaR reduction indicates a portion of residual risk remains at all scales. Analysis of the hedge portfolio distributions indicate that this unhedged tail risk is related to excess portfolio kurtosis found at all scales.

Link al Paper

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