US portfolio recom. 2, April 2012

US portfolio recom. 2, April 2012

The portfolio recommendation is based on two low-volatility strategies: a long-only minimum-variance portfolio and a“130:30” minimum-variance portfolio, which is long 130% and short 30%.
These strategies use advanced Optimization and Statisticstechniques to hedge against the estimation risk of the associated models. As a result, they attain consistently better risk-adjusted returns than market indexes, as these portfolio recommendations show.
For more details about the implementation of these strategies, please read the following post: Some efficient low-volatility portfolios: the minimum-variance policy.

The long-only and the 130:30 low-volatility portfolios recommended for this week, with their corresponding weights, can be found in this file:US_weights_20120402.csv

Although I recommend a portfolio composition every month, it is desirable to maintain this composition for a quarter year, and then rebalance with the new composition.
The current long-only portfolio composition has not changed respect to the previous quarter. The turnover is 13% (due to the portfolio growth). On the other hand, the turnover of the current 130:30 portfolio is a bit larger: 29%.

Regarding the performance, over the last year (52 weeks), the long-only strategy attained a volatility of 11.1% (versus 21.2% of the S&P 500). The volatility of the 130:30 strategy is even better: 9.6%.

The weekly 95%-VaR of the long-only portfolio was 2.1% (versus 4.7% of the S&P 500). The corresponding VaR for the 130:30 portfolio was 1.8%.

The last year annualized Sharpe ratio of the long-only strategy was 1.17 (after proportional transaction costs of 40 bps were discounted). On the other hand, the SR of the 130:30 strategy was 1.60. Finally, the SR of the S&P 500 was 0.43 over the same period.

In the next figure, you can see the compounded return over the last 52 weeks of the three considered portfolios.

Both low-volatility portfolios attain better returns than those of the S&P 500.

But let add information about the risk. The next graph shows the risk-return space for the three considered portfolios.

The red point represents the mean return and volatility of the long-only portfolio over the past 52 weeks. On the other hand, the green point represents the 130:30 portfolio, and finally the blue point represents the S&P 500 index over the same 52 past weeks.

We can see the two low-volatility portfolios have better mean returns than that of the S&P 500, and also their volatilities are better. In this case, we say the low-vol portfolios dominate the index.

I have computed the same risk-return space for every week over the last year, using the same 52-weeks historical method to estimate the mean returns and the volatilities. The long-only and 130:30 portfolios attained a higher return than that of the S&P 500 (100% and 96% of the time, respectively). Moreover, the volatility of both low-vol portfolios was always less than that of the S&P 500.

As a summary, the low-volatility strategies dominate the market index most of the time, showing they attain consistently better risk-adjusted returns.

Posted in Francisco J. Nogales, Trading0 Comments

US portfolio recom. 5, March 2012

US portfolio recom. 5, March 2012

The portfolio recommendation is based on two low-volatility strategies: a long-only minimum-variance portfolio and a“130:30” minimum-variance portfolio, which is long 130% and short 30%.
These strategies use advanced Optimization and Statisticstechniques to hedge against the estimation risk of the associated models. As a result, they attain consistently better risk-adjusted returns than market indexes, as these portfolio recommendations show.
For more details about the implementation of these strategies, please read the following post: Some efficient low-volatility portfolios: the minimum-variance policy.

The long-only and the 130:30 low-volatility portfolios recommended for this week, with their corresponding weights, can be found in this file:US_weights_20120305.csv

Although I recommend a portfolio composition every month, it is desirable to maintain this composition for a quarter year, and then rebalance with the new composition.
The current long-only portfolio composition has changed a bit respect to the previous quarter (one more stock has been purchased). The turnover is 15% (due to the portfolio growth and the new purchase). On the other hand, the turnover of the current 130:30 portfolio is a bit larger: 26%.

Regarding the performance, over the last year (52 weeks), the long-only strategy attained a volatility of 11.3% (versus 21.3% of the S&P 500). The volatility of the 130:30 strategy is even better: 9.5%.

The weekly 95%-VaR of the long-only portfolio was 2.1% (versus 4.7% of the S&P 500). The corresponding VaR for the 130:30 portfolio was 1.7%.

The last year annualized Sharpe ratio of the long-only strategy was 1.06 (after proportional transaction costs of 40 bps were discounted). On the other hand, the SR of the 130:30 strategy was 1.67. Finally, the SR of the S&P 500 was 0.27 over the same period.

In the next figure, you can see the compounded return over the last 52 weeks of the three considered portfolios.

Both low-volatility portfolios attain better returns than those of the S&P 500.

But let add information about the risk. The next graph shows the risk-return space for the three considered portfolios.

The red point represents the mean return and volatility of the long-only portfolio over the past 52 weeks. On the other hand, the green point represents the 130:30 portfolio, and finally the blue point represents the S&P 500 index over the same 52 past weeks.

We can see the two low-volatility portfolios have better mean returns than that of the S&P 500, and also their volatilities are better. In this case, we say the low-vol portfolios dominate the index.

I have computed the same risk-return space for every week over the last year, using the same 52-weeks historical method to estimate the mean returns and the volatilities. The long-only and 130:30 portfolios attained a higher return than that of the S&P 500 (100% and 96% of the time, respectively). Moreover, the volatility of both low-vol portfolios wasalways less than that of the S&P 500.

As a summary, the low-volatility strategies dominate the market index most of the time, showing they attain consistently better risk-adjusted returns.

Posted in Francisco J. Nogales, Trading0 Comments

US portfolio recom. 6, February 2012

US portfolio recom. 6, February 2012

The portfolio recommendation is based on two low-volatility strategies: a long-only minimum-variance portfolio and a“130:30” minimum-variance portfolio, which is long 130% and short 30%.
These strategies use advanced Optimization and Statistics techniques to hedge against the estimation risk of the associated models. As a result, they attain consistently better risk-adjusted returns than market indexes, as these portfolio recommendations show.
For more details about the implementation of these strategies, please read the following post: Some efficient low-volatility portfolios: the minimum-variance policy.

The long-only and the 130:30 low-volatility portfolios recommended for this week, with their corresponding weights, can be found in this file:US_weights_20120206.csv

Although I recommend a portfolio composition every month, it is desirable to maintain this composition for a quarter year, and then rebalance with the new composition.
The current long-only portfolio composition has not changed respect to the previous quarter. The turnover is 12% (due to the portfolio growth). On the other hand, the turnover of the current 130:30 portfolio is a bit larger: 30%.

Regarding the performance, over the last year (52 weeks), the long-only strategy attained a volatility of 11.3% (versus 21.6% of the S&P 500). The volatility of the 130:30 strategy is even better: 9.5%.

The weekly 95%-VaR of the long-only portfolio was 2.2% (versus 4.7% of the S&P 500). The corresponding VaR for the 130:30 portfolio was 1.9%.

The last year annualized Sharpe ratio of the long-only strategy was 1.39 (after proportional transaction costs of 40 bps were discounted). On the other hand, the SR of the 130:30 strategy was 1.59. Finally, the SR of the S&P 500 was 0.34 over the same period.

In the next figure, you can see the compounded return over the last 52 weeks of the three considered portfolios.

Both low-volatility portfolios attain better returns than those of the S&P 500.

But let add information about the risk. The next graph shows the risk-return space for the three considered portfolios.

The red point represents the mean return and volatility of the long-only portfolio over the past 52 weeks. On the other hand, the green point represents the 130:30 portfolio, and finally the blue point represents the S&P 500 index over the same 52 past weeks.

We can see the two low-volatility portfolios have better mean returns than that of the S&P 500, and also their volatilities are better. In this case, we say the low-vol portfolios dominate the index.

I have computed the same risk-return space for every week over the last year, using the same 52-weeks historical method to estimate the mean returns and the volatilities. The long-only and 130:30 portfolios attained a higher return than that of the S&P 500 (100% and 88% of the time, respectively). Moreover, the volatility of both low-vol portfolios was always less than that of the S&P 500.

As a summary, the low-volatility strategies dominate the market index most of the time, showing they attain consistently better risk-adjusted returns.

Posted in Francisco J. Nogales, Trading0 Comments

US portfolio recom. 9, January 2012

US portfolio recom. 9, January 2012

The portfolio recommendation is based on two low-volatility strategies: a long-only minimum-variance portfolio and a“130:30” minimum-variance portfolio, which is long 130% and short 30%.

These strategies use advanced Optimization and Statistics techniques to hedge against the estimation risk of the associated models. As a result, they attain consistently better risk-adjusted returns than market indexes, as these portfolio recommendations show.

For more details about the implementation of these strategies, please read the following post: Some efficient low-volatility portfolios: the minimum-variance policy.

The long-only and the 130:30 low-volatility portfolios recommended for this week, with their corresponding weights, can be found in this file:US_weights_20120110.csv

Although I recommend a portfolio composition every month, it is desirable to maintain this composition for a quarter year, and then rebalance with the new composition.

The current long-only portfolio composition is very similar to that of previous quarter, except for two stocks bought (out of 20). The turnover is 17% (due to the portfolio growth and the trading of these two companies). On the other hand, the turnover of the current 130:30 portfolio is a bit larger: 32%.

Regarding the performance, over the last year (52 weeks), the long-only strategy attained a volatility of 11.5% (versus 21.5% of the S&P 500). The volatility of the 130:30 strategy is even better: 9.6%.

The weekly 95%-VaR of the long-only portfolio was 2.1% (versus 4.7% of the S&P 500). The corresponding VaR for the 130:30 portfolio was 1.9%.

The last year annualized Sharpe ratio of the long-only strategy was 1.11 (after proportional transaction costs of 40 bps were discounted). On the other hand, the SR of the 130:30 strategy was 1.49. Finally, the SR of the S&P 500 was 0.18 over the same period.

In the next figure, you can see the compounded return over the last 52 weeks of the three considered portfolios.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Both low-volatility portfolios attain better returns than those of the S&P 500.
But let add information about the risk. The next graph shows the risk-return space for the three considered portfolios.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The red point represents the mean return and volatility of the long-only portfolio over the past 52 weeks. On the other hand, the green point represents the 130:30 portfolio, and finally the blue point represents the S&P 500 index over the same 52 past weeks.

We can see the two low-volatility portfolios have better mean returns than that of the S&P 500, and also their volatilities are better. In this case, we say the low-vol portfolios dominate the index.
I have computed the same risk-return space for every week over the last year, using the same 52-weeks historical method to estimate the mean returns and the volatilities. The long-only and 130:30 portfolios attained a higher return than that of the S&P 500 (100% and 85% of the time, respectively). Moreover, the volatility of both low-vol portfolios wasalways less than that of the S&P 500.
As a summary, the low-volatility strategies dominate the market index most of the time, showing they attain consistently better risk-adjusted returns.

Posted in Francisco J. Nogales, Trading0 Comments

US portfolio recom. 5, December 2011

US portfolio recom. 5, December 2011

The portfolio recommendation is based on two low-volatility strategies: a long-only minimum-variance portfolio and a“130:30” minimum-variance portfolio, which is long 130% and short 30%.
These strategies use advanced Optimization and Statisticstechniques to hedge against the estimation risk of the associated models. As a result, they attain consistently better risk-adjusted returns than market indexes, as these portfolio recommendations show.
For more details about the implementation of these strategies, please read the following post: Some efficient low-volatility portfolios: the minimum-variance policy.
The long-only and the 130:30 low-volatility portfolios recommended for this week, with their corresponding weights, can be found in this file:US_weights_20111205.csvAlthough I recommend a portfolio composition every month, it is desirable to maintain this composition for a quarter year, and then rebalance with the new composition.

The current long-only portfolio composition is very similar to that of previous quarter, except for one stock sold and other bought (out of 20). The turnover is 17% (due to the portfolio growth and the trading of these two companies). On the other hand, the turnover of the current 130:30 portfolio is a bit larger: 23%.Regarding the performance, over the last year (52 weeks), the long-only strategy attained a volatility of 11.7% (versus 21.1% of the S&P 500). The volatility of the 130:30 strategy is even better: 9.7%.

The weekly 95%-VaR of the long-only portfolio was 2.0% (versus 4.7% of the S&P 500). The corresponding VaR for the 130:30 portfolio was 1.9%.
The last year annualized Sharpe ratio of the long-only strategy was 1.24 (after proportional transaction costs of 40 bps were discounted). On the other hand, the SR of the 130:30 strategy was 1.47. Finally, the SR of the S&P 500 was 0.31 over the same period.
In the next figure, you can see the compounded return over the last 52 weeks of the three considered portfolios.

 

Both low-volatility portfolios attain better returns than those of the S&P 500.
But let add information about the risk. The next graph shows the risk-return space for the three considered portfolios.

The red point represents the mean return and volatility of the long-only portfolio over the past 52 weeks. On the other hand, the green point represents the 130:30 portfolio, and finally the blue point represents the S&P 500 index over the same 52 past weeks.
We can see the two low-volatility portfolios have better mean returns than that of the S&P 500, and also their volatilities are better. In this case, we say the low-vol portfolios dominate the index.

I have computed the same risk-return space for every week over the last year, using the same 52-weeks historical method to estimate the mean returns and the volatilities. The long-only and 130:30 portfolios attained a higher return than that of the S&P 500 (100% and 84% of the time, respectively). Moreover, the volatility of both low-vol portfolios was always less than that of the S&P 500.

As a summary, the low-volatility strategies dominate the market index most of the time, showing they attain consistently better risk-adjusted returns.

Posted in Francisco J. Nogales, Trading0 Comments

US portfolio recom. 7, November 2011

US portfolio recom. 7, November 2011

The portfolio recommendation is based on two low-volatility strategies: a long-only minimum-variance portfolio and a“130:30” minimum-variance portfolio, which is long 130% and short 30%.
These strategies use advanced Optimization and Statisticstechniques to hedge against the estimation risk of the associated models. As a result, they attain consistently better risk-adjusted returns than market indexes, as these portfolio recommendations show.
For more details about the implementation of these strategies, please read the following post: Some efficient low-volatility portfolios: the minimum-variance policy.

The long-only and the 130:30 low-volatility portfolios recommended for this week, with their corresponding weights, can be found in this file:US_weights_20111107.csv

Although I recommend a portfolio composition every week, it is desirable to maintain this composition for several weeks (for instance a quarter year), and then rebalance with the new composition.
The current long-only portfolio composition is very similar to that of previous quarter, except for five stocks sold (out of 24). The turnover is 22% (due to the portfolio growth and the trading of these five companies). On the other hand, the turnover of the current 130:30 portfolio is a bit larger: 26%.

Regarding the performance, over the last year (52 weeks), the long-only strategy attained a volatility of 10.6% (versus 19.3% of the S&P 500). The volatility of the 130:30 strategy is even better: 8.9%.

The weekly 95%-VaR of the long-only portfolio was 2.2% (versus 4.6% of the S&P 500). The corresponding VaR for the 130:30 portfolio was 1.9%.

The last year annualized Sharpe ratio of the long-only strategy was 1.36 (after proportional transaction costs of 40 bps were discounted). On the other hand, the SR of the 130:30 strategy was 1.70. Finally, the SR of the S&P 500 was 0.39 over the same period.

In the next figure, you can see the compounded return over the last 52 weeks of the three considered portfolios.

Both low-volatility portfolios attain better returns than those of the S&P 500.

But let add information about the risk. The next graph shows the risk-return space for the three considered portfolios.

The red point represents the mean return and volatility of the long-only portfolio over the past 52 weeks. On the other hand, the green point represents the 130:30 portfolio, and finally the blue point represents the S&P 500 index over the same 52 past weeks.

We can see the two low-volatility portfolios have better mean returns than that of the S&P 500, and also their volatilities are better. In this case, we say the low-vol portfolios dominate the index.

I have computed the same risk-return space for every week over the last year, using the same 52-weeks historical method to estimate the mean returns and the volatilities. The long-only and 130:30 portfolios attained a higher return than that of the S&P 500 (83% and 48% of the time, respectively). Moreover, the volatility of both low-vol portfolios wasalways less than that of the S&P 500.

As a summary, the low-volatility strategies dominate the market index most of the time, showing they attain consistently better risk-adjusted returns.

Posted in Francisco J. Nogales, Trading0 Comments


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